Nikkei Electronics Asia --September 2010
Cover Story: Tablets Are Not PCs [SideBox]
"Will Sony Really Try to Regain Market Position?"¡Ý¡ÝSatoshi Nakajima, UIE Japan

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Aug 31, 2010 23:59 Toshiyuki Omori, Phil Keys, Yasushi Uchida

Continued from Providing Value Not Found in the iPad: Service Integration is the Key

When the iPad went on sale, I made eight predictions. Let me run over them here.

Satoshi Nakajima, Chief Executive Officer of UIE Japan, Inc. of Japan
Chief architect at Microsoft for Windows 95, Windows 98, and Internet Explorer 3.0 and 4.0. Left Microsoft in 2000 to found UIEvolution. Remains an active programmer today.

1) The iPad will be a success.
Usually there is a risk when a new device is released. If there are too few applications available the device won't sell, and vice-versa. With the iPad, however, Apple was able to fully utilize the developer community it had built for the iPhone. There are a lot of Apple fanatics, too. I figured the iPad would be a success, and I was right.

2) Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble will both pull out of the e-book reader business.
I don't think this will happen in 2010, but if sales volume for the Kindle and similar readers is too far below iPad sales in 2011 and beyond, it is quite possible. Amazon.com's business core is book sales, not terminal sales.

3) Sony will launch a real response
Amazon.com will stay in business even if it does pull out of terminal sales, but Sony is in a different situation. I think Sony will swing to the offensive. They already know they have little chance of beating Apple just with a terminal, and I'm pretty sure that they will be planning on making their money off selling content to tablets.

4) Our lifestyle will change.
This is going to have the biggest impact. With tablets like the iPad, the general public will finally be ale to enjoy Web browsing, e-books, and playing music and games right on their own terminals. The tablet will change the place of content consumption, and transform our lifestyles.

5) No direct competition with netbooks and tablet PCs.

6) Application stores will be in intense competition with each other.

7) The e-book revolution will continue, gradually.

8) Major Web sites will gradually move away from Flash.