Nikkei Electronics Asia --April 2010
Cover Story
Photovoltaic Cells on the Verge of Explosive Growth

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Apr 1, 2010 00:10 Tetsuo Nozawa

The day is coming fast when photovoltaic cells will finally leave the "incubator," spreading like wildfire. The spread of renewable energy purchasing systems and massive financial incentives have set the stage for solar cells in not only homes and condos, but in offices, factories and more as well.

"We will realize grid parity in photovoltaic cells as soon as we possibly can," says Toshishige Hamano, Representative Directors and Executive Vice Presidents of Sharp Corp. of Japan.

For companies and personnel involved in the new energy business, such as solar cells, "grid parity" has become top priority.

The term refers to bring the electricity cost from renewable energy sources (solar cells, wind power and the like) down to the level that electricity prices will be equivalent to the existing commercial power grid.

If grid parity is achieved with solar cells, for example, it would mean an increasing number of individuals and organizations would install photovoltaic power generating systems even without financial incentives. This would in turn lower the purchase and installation costs for solar cells even more, creating a positive feedback loop... and that could abruptly accelerate the speed of adoption for solar cells in the market. Solar cells are on the verge of leaving the incubator, and spreading like wildfire to everywhere the sun shines.

Moving Plans Up by a Decade

But it is really possible to achieve grid parity in solar cells? As it turns out, people in the industry are moving up their target dates already.

In 2007, most people agreed with the statement of McKinsey & Co. of the US, predicting that grid parity would be achieved in Japan in about 2020. More recently, however, the general feeling has changed to match the prediction by Fuji Keizai Co., Ltd. of Japan for "2010-2012." Industry expectations have moved up by about a decade, in only three years! It is possible that grid parity could be attained at any instant (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1 Solar Cell Manufacturing Cost Dropping 5 to 10 Years Ahead of Estimates
The diagram shows the trend in the manufacturing cost for photovoltaic cell modules. The low cost of CdTe solar cells overpowered other technologies in 2009, but it looks like thin-film Si solar cells may drop to about that level in 2010. Diagram by Nikkei Electronics based on material courtesy Fuji Keizai and First Solar.